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KATL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
15%
WN2
14%
HRES
13%
ICON
12%
EPS
2%
Consensus
4%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 8.2¢Risks 4.12u
VS
EPSNO 91.8¢Risks 45.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.88u · EPS −45.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.5% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 49.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 46.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.9% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.3% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.7% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 45.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 27.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 20.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 34.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 68.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 38.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 31.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 26.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 7.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.2% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 31.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-13 18:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:001.7%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:002.1%———0.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0020.1%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0015.6%———12.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:007.1%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0014.9%———18.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0030.6%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0015.6%———18.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0016.9%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:004.2%———26.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0014.6%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0034.9%———20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:007.5%————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0042.6%———23.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0031.6%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0034.5%———34.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0032.5%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0049.5%———27.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0051.1%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0046.2%———30.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0029.7%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0034.5%———31.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0035.9%—11.2%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0030.3%—34.0%—25.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0032.1%—68.9%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0031.3%———13.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0032.7%—31.0%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0036.4%—1.4%—23.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0029.3%—28.7%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0039.1%—1.7%—21.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0045.4%—32.1%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:009.3%1.6%22.3%—18.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0037.1%—38.5%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0025.2%27.5%35.6%3.3%20.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0027.1%—35.3%——
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0021.5%20.4%31.7%11.3%16.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0012.3%—25.6%——
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0010.3%3.9%33.7%7.8%10.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0010.9%—23.5%—6.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:009.0%7.2%21.8%7.5%8.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:006.0%0.2%26.3%—5.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:005.1%2.8%20.1%1.6%3.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:003.8%2.4%14.7%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:003.1%5.2%14.6%2.5%5.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—2.9%14.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast16%75.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
AIFS Single15%74.7°F4.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 214%75.5°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES13%73.8°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON12%73.8°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend3%73.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble2%74.2°F2.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗