KATL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

48%

36%

24%

22%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 40.6¢Risks 40.60u

ICONNO 59.4¢Risks 59.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +59.40u · ICON −59.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	—	—	73.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	66.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	31.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	37.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	81.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	71.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	85.2%	—	57.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	66.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	8.8%	56.7%	—	45.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	52.8%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	9.6%	55.6%	31.7%	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	42.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	23.2%	44.2%	27.2%	24.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	26.8%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	12.2%	46.2%	25.1%	20.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	34.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	6.7%	33.7%	11.5%	17.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	1.4%	33.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	72.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	71.5°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	68.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	67.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261024-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 73°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗