KATL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

49%

29%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 28.6¢Risks 28.60u

EPSNO 71.4¢Risks 71.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +71.40u · EPS −71.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	13.7%	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	36.3%	29.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	49.4%	29.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	35.0%	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	3.2%	33.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	16.3%	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	0.1%	30.0%	28.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	20.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	75.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	75.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	71.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	62.1°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	70.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗