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KATL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
52%
AIFS
49%
HRES
29%
ICON
9%
EPS
5%
Consensus
24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 28.6¢Risks 28.60u
VS
EPSNO 71.4¢Risks 71.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +71.40u · EPS −71.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00IFS HRES: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:4910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:44+00:0048.6%10.9%55.8%28.8%9.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0048.6%10.9%55.8%28.8%9.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0048.6%10.9%55.8%28.8%9.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:0048.6%10.9%55.8%28.8%9.0%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:0048.6%10.9%55.8%28.8%9.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:0048.6%4.9%52.3%28.8%9.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:0048.6%4.9%52.3%28.8%9.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%76.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 252%75.8°F5.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single49%75.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES29%71.9°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON9%62.1°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%70.2°F3.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗