KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

33%

30%

30%

12%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

ICONNO 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.55u · ICON −57.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	92.4%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	82.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	4.8%	—	—	79.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	1.8%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	17.1%	21.9%	10.2%	—	63.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	88.0%	64.3%	46.4%	—	82.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	92.4%	82.6%	39.4%	—	71.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	65.5%	91.6%	24.2%	—	62.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	91.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	65.5%	86.7%	21.9%	—	47.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	23.3%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	29.1%	62.9%	18.4%	—	30.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	39.3%	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	33.0%	29.7%	11.9%	—	19.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	28.4%	35.2%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	22.5%	26.3%	14.7%	—	28.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	12.4%	29.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	12.3%	27.6%	8.2%	—	21.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	20.5%	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	21.3%	22.1%	8.5%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	19.8%	38.9%	0.0%	—	20.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	19.9%	41.9%	7.6%	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	19.1%	44.0%	8.2%	—	19.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	20.8%	43.8%	10.0%	6.7%	18.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	15.0%	43.6%	7.2%	—	12.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	17.3%	46.0%	5.7%	5.0%	9.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	21.1%	40.3%	9.8%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	34.5%	30.5%	7.3%	5.9%	16.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	27.2%	16.2%	4.4%	—	6.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	26.3%	22.6%	5.2%	4.8%	8.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	29.5%	28.1%	7.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	76.4°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0745
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
WeatherNext 2	33%	73.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.4516
IFS HRES	30%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.4830
AIFS Single	30%	72.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.4942
ICON	12%	70.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.7709

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗