KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

67%

38%

37%

29%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

WN2NO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.80u · WN2 −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	0.8%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	9.6%	13.0%	5.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	79.0%	50.0%	32.3%	—	70.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	85.4%	71.1%	25.8%	—	56.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	50.0%	83.7%	13.6%	—	46.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	49.2%	75.5%	11.6%	—	31.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	12.3%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	16.1%	45.6%	9.0%	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	23.5%	26.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	18.4%	16.0%	5.0%	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	14.8%	19.6%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	10.7%	13.1%	6.2%	—	14.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	4.9%	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.7%	13.4%	2.8%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	8.8%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	9.0%	9.4%	2.8%	—	9.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	7.9%	19.8%	0.0%	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	7.6%	21.5%	2.2%	—	8.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.0%	22.5%	2.3%	—	7.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	7.5%	21.7%	2.8%	1.7%	6.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.6%	20.9%	1.8%	—	3.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.3%	22.0%	1.2%	1.0%	2.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	6.7%	17.3%	2.3%	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	13.0%	10.8%	1.5%	1.1%	4.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.6%	4.1%	0.7%	—	1.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	7.7%	6.1%	0.8%	0.7%	1.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.6%	7.9%	1.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	85.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.8668
IFS Ensemble	67%	80.1°F	8.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4516
National Blend	52%	77.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2704
ICON	38%	73.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1475
AIFS Single	37%	74.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1399
WeatherNext 2	29%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0858

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗