KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 03:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

67%

38%

37%

29%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

WN2NO 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +38.80u · WN2 −38.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:32:27+00:00	8.3%	75.7%	36.0%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	8.3%	75.7%	36.0%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	8.3%	75.7%	36.0%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	8.3%	75.7%	36.0%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T10:34:09+00:00	8.3%	75.7%	36.0%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T11:20:09+00:00	8.3%	65.4%	16.0%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:23+00:00	8.3%	65.4%	16.0%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	8.3%	65.4%	16.0%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	25.9%	65.4%	16.0%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	26.0%	65.4%	16.1%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:00+00:00	26.0%	67.2%	16.1%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	26.0%	67.2%	16.1%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	26.0%	67.2%	16.1%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	26.0%	67.2%	16.6%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	26.0%	67.2%	16.6%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	26.0%	67.2%	16.6%	93.9%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:33+00:00	41.5%	67.2%	16.6%	93.1%	38.4%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	41.5%	67.2%	16.6%	93.1%	38.4%
2026-10-11T21:13:54+00:00	41.5%	67.2%	16.6%	93.1%	38.4%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	41.5%	67.2%	16.6%	93.1%	38.4%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	41.5%	67.2%	16.6%	93.1%	38.4%
2026-10-11T23:29:36+00:00	41.5%	67.2%	29.3%	93.1%	38.4%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	41.5%	67.2%	29.3%	93.1%	38.4%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	41.5%	67.2%	29.3%	93.1%	38.4%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	37.4%	67.2%	29.3%	93.1%	38.4%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	37.4%	67.2%	29.3%	93.1%	38.4%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	37.4%	67.2%	29.3%	93.1%	38.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	85.9°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.8668
IFS Ensemble	67%	80.1°F	8.1°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.4516
National Blend	52%	77.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 06:00	0.2704
ICON	38%	73.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.1475
AIFS Single	37%	74.7°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.1399
WeatherNext 2	29%	73.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-11 12:00	0.0858

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗