KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

25%

20%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.8¢Risks 29.75u

WN2NO 70.2¢Risks 70.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.25u · WN2 −70.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	6.9%	9.6%	3.6%	—	43.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	22.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	73.4%	42.7%	26.0%	—	64.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	60.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	80.5%	64.2%	20.0%	—	49.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	42.1%	78.2%	9.7%	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	40.9%	68.5%	8.0%	—	24.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	8.5%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	11.3%	37.1%	5.9%	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	17.2%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	12.9%	11.0%	3.0%	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	10.0%	13.7%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.8%	8.6%	3.8%	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.8%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	2.6%	8.6%	1.5%	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.2%	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.3%	5.6%	1.4%	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.5%	12.9%	0.0%	—	4.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.2%	14.0%	1.1%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.7%	14.5%	1.1%	—	3.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.0%	13.7%	1.3%	0.7%	3.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.2%	12.8%	0.8%	—	1.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.6%	13.4%	0.5%	0.4%	1.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	9.8%	1.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.8%	5.5%	0.5%	0.4%	1.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.1%	1.7%	0.2%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.4%	2.6%	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	3.4%	0.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	57%	78.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.3283
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3003
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
ICON	25%	74.3°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0645
IFS HRES	20%	73.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0380
AIFS Single	9%	71.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0079
WeatherNext 2	2%	70.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0005

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗