KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

34%

17%

<1%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.3¢Risks 23.30u

WN2NO 76.7¢Risks 76.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +76.70u · WN2 −76.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	16.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	1.4%	2.2%	0.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	45.6%	17.9%	8.4%	—	35.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	53.8%	34.4%	5.4%	—	21.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	15.9%	49.2%	1.8%	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	47.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	14.3%	36.1%	1.2%	—	6.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	11.3%	0.7%	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.2%	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.0%	1.6%	0.3%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.3%	2.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	1.0%	0.3%	—	1.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.4%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.2%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.2%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	1.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
National Blend	54%	82.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2884
IFS Ensemble	46%	81.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2098
ICON	34%	79.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1129
IFS HRES	17%	75.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0276
AIFS Single	2%	71.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	<1%	71.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗