KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 16:12 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

34%

23%

13%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 17.1¢Risks 17.05u

AIFSNO 83.0¢Risks 82.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.95u · AIFS −82.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.7%	0.9%	0.2%	—	3.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.6%	2.7%	0.1%	—	1.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	5.3%	0.0%	—	0.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	2.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	34%	86.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.1156
ICON	23%	84.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0548
IFS Ensemble	13%	81.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0166
National Blend	9%	79.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0079
NWS forecast	2%	78.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.0006
AIFS Single	<1%	72.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	74.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗