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KAUS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 12 · 16:12 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
34%
ICON
23%
EPS
13%
AIFS
<1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 17.1¢Risks 17.05u
VS
AIFSNO 83.0¢Risks 82.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +82.95u · AIFS −82.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T07:48:48+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 12.9% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T07:48:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00IFS HRES: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T07:48:48+00:00IFS HRES: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00IFS HRES: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00IFS HRES: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00IFS HRES: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00IFS HRES: 34.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:48+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00ICON: 23.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00ICON: 23.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:0010-12 07:4810-12 10:0510-12 16:12
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:48+00:000.1%12.3%0.1%34.0%23.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:000.1%12.3%0.1%34.0%23.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:000.1%12.3%0.1%34.0%23.3%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:000.1%12.3%0.1%34.0%23.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:000.1%12.3%0.1%34.0%23.3%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:000.1%12.9%0.1%34.0%23.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES34%86.8°F6.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.1156
ICON23%84.4°F7.0°F2026-10-12 00:000.0548
IFS Ensemble13%81.5°F7.1°F2026-10-12 00:000.0166
National Blend9%79.0°F7.8°F2026-10-12 06:000.0079
NWS forecast2%78.0°F5.8°F2026-10-12 14:000.0006
AIFS Single<1%72.3°F5.3°F2026-10-12 06:000.0000
WeatherNext 2<1%74.5°F4.6°F2026-10-12 00:000.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261018-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗