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KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
41%
AIFS
26%
HRES
22%
WN2
22%
ICON
7%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 23.8¢Risks 23.80u
VS
ICONNO 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +76.20u · ICON −76.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 26.3% · 2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00AIFS Single: 26.3% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 26.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 26.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 40.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 21.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 21.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 6.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 06:0210-19 06:47
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:0026.3%40.8%9.0%21.7%6.8%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0026.3%40.8%21.5%21.7%6.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0026.3%40.8%21.5%21.7%6.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:0026.3%40.8%21.5%21.7%6.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%80.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend54%80.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble41%78.7°F3.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single26%77.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES22%76.6°F3.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 222%77.2°F2.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON7%74.2°F3.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗