KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

26%

22%

22%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

ICONNO 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +76.20u · ICON −76.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	0.0%	60.0%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	93.1%	80.1%	0.1%	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	76.8%	9.6%	52.2%	—	60.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	83.1%	34.4%	22.8%	—	52.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	41.3%	57.9%	10.4%	—	31.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	18.4%	41.7%	7.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	10.7%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	26.2%	38.8%	6.8%	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	22.9%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	26.6%	16.6%	5.8%	—	21.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	20.3%	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	21.8%	23.2%	6.8%	—	16.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	22.6%	37.2%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	25.9%	43.9%	12.8%	—	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	19.8%	22.8%	—	—	10.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	25.5%	5.9%	11.9%	0.0%	14.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	16.1%	17.5%	0.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.2%	18.3%	10.5%	2.7%	6.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.2%	19.9%	9.7%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	8.5%	11.2%	10.6%	—	9.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	18.2%	10.3%	5.6%	—	7.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	8.9%	14.9%	9.5%	9.5%	6.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	24.2%	27.6%	15.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	21.2%	7.3%	13.0%	10.8%	6.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	22.4%	6.5%	8.6%	—	4.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	15.2%	13.4%	7.1%	3.4%	2.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	16.0%	24.1%	7.9%	—	7.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	0.1681
National Blend	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	0.2079
IFS Ensemble	41%	78.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3505
AIFS Single	26%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.5432
IFS HRES	22%	76.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.6131
WeatherNext 2	22%	77.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.6162
ICON	7%	74.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.8686

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗