KAUS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

18%

17%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 17.0¢Risks 16.95u

WN2NO 83.0¢Risks 83.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +83.05u · WN2 −83.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	40.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	0.0%	33.6%	—	—	45.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	78.1%	55.6%	0.0%	—	26.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	50.0%	2.1%	24.9%	—	32.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	57.6%	12.2%	6.5%	—	23.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	15.4%	27.4%	2.0%	—	10.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	4.1%	14.8%	1.1%	—	4.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.8%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	6.5%	12.2%	0.9%	—	7.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	5.0%	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	6.1%	2.9%	0.6%	—	4.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.8%	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.0%	4.4%	0.7%	—	2.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.0%	9.2%	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.7%	11.8%	1.5%	—	2.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	1.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.0%	0.4%	1.1%	0.0%	1.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.7%	1.9%	0.0%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	1.9%	0.8%	0.1%	0.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	2.0%	0.6%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	0.5%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.4%	0.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.8%	2.3%	0.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	0.2%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2894
National Blend	46%	83.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2088
IFS Ensemble	32%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1056
IFS HRES	18%	78.2°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0320
ICON	17%	77.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0286
AIFS Single	7%	76.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0044
WeatherNext 2	1%	74.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 84°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗