KAUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

34%

31%

30%

23%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.7¢Risks 37.70u

ICONNO 62.3¢Risks 62.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.30u · ICON −62.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:28+00:00	25.8%	44.0%	17.9%	39.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:02+00:00	25.8%	44.0%	17.9%	39.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:21+00:00	25.8%	44.0%	16.2%	39.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	25.8%	44.0%	16.2%	39.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	25.8%	44.0%	16.2%	39.8%	52.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:10+00:00	21.0%	44.0%	16.2%	21.8%	40.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	21.0%	44.0%	16.2%	21.8%	40.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	21.0%	44.0%	16.2%	21.8%	40.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	21.0%	44.0%	16.2%	21.8%	40.0%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	21.0%	44.0%	10.7%	21.8%	40.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	21.0%	44.0%	10.7%	21.8%	40.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	21.0%	75.1%	10.7%	21.8%	40.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:32+00:00	21.0%	75.1%	10.7%	21.8%	40.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	46.8%	75.1%	10.7%	21.8%	40.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	46.8%	75.1%	10.7%	21.8%	40.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:31+00:00	46.8%	76.2%	10.7%	21.8%	40.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	46.8%	76.2%	10.7%	21.8%	40.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	46.8%	76.2%	14.2%	21.8%	40.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	46.8%	76.2%	14.2%	21.8%	40.8%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	46.8%	76.2%	14.2%	21.8%	40.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	46.8%	76.2%	14.2%	21.8%	40.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	24.1%	76.2%	14.2%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	24.1%	76.2%	14.2%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	24.1%	76.2%	14.2%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	24.1%	76.2%	14.2%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	24.1%	76.2%	21.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	24.0%	76.2%	21.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	24.0%	76.2%	21.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	35.1%	76.2%	21.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	35.1%	76.2%	21.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	35.1%	76.2%	21.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	35.1%	76.2%	21.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:51+00:00	35.1%	76.2%	21.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	35.1%	76.2%	17.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	35.1%	76.2%	17.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	35.1%	76.2%	17.1%	41.1%	47.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	28.6%	76.2%	17.1%	41.1%	38.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:26+00:00	28.6%	76.2%	17.1%	41.1%	38.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	28.6%	76.2%	17.1%	41.1%	38.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	28.6%	76.2%	17.1%	41.1%	38.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	28.6%	76.2%	17.1%	41.1%	38.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	28.6%	66.4%	14.7%	41.1%	38.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	28.6%	66.4%	14.7%	41.1%	38.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	28.6%	66.4%	14.7%	41.1%	38.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	30.8%	66.4%	14.7%	48.4%	38.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	30.8%	66.4%	14.7%	48.4%	38.7%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	32.3%	66.4%	14.1%	34.5%	43.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	32.3%	66.4%	18.8%	34.5%	43.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	32.3%	66.4%	18.8%	34.5%	43.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	32.3%	66.4%	18.8%	34.5%	43.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:52+00:00	35.4%	66.4%	18.8%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	35.4%	66.4%	18.8%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	35.4%	66.4%	18.8%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	35.4%	66.4%	18.8%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	35.4%	66.4%	18.8%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	35.4%	70.4%	15.7%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	35.4%	70.4%	15.7%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	35.4%	70.4%	15.7%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	31.2%	70.4%	15.7%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	31.2%	69.8%	15.7%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	31.2%	57.1%	15.7%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	31.2%	57.1%	15.7%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	31.2%	57.1%	13.6%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	31.2%	57.1%	13.6%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	31.2%	57.1%	13.6%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	31.2%	57.1%	13.6%	39.4%	29.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	24.9%	57.1%	13.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	24.9%	57.1%	13.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	24.9%	57.1%	13.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	24.9%	57.1%	13.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	24.9%	57.1%	10.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	24.9%	57.1%	10.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	24.9%	57.1%	10.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	24.9%	57.1%	10.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	10.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	10.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	10.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	10.6%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	14.3%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	14.3%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	14.3%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	24.2%	57.1%	14.3%	31.1%	31.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	26.9%	57.1%	14.3%	41.3%	27.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	26.9%	57.1%	14.3%	41.3%	27.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	26.9%	57.1%	14.3%	41.3%	27.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	26.9%	57.1%	14.3%	41.3%	27.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	26.9%	59.4%	10.4%	41.3%	27.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	26.9%	59.4%	10.4%	41.3%	27.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	26.9%	59.4%	10.4%	41.3%	27.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	26.9%	59.4%	10.4%	41.3%	27.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	23.8%	59.2%	10.4%	41.3%	27.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	23.8%	59.2%	10.4%	41.3%	27.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	23.8%	50.0%	10.4%	41.3%	27.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	23.8%	50.0%	10.4%	41.3%	27.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	23.8%	50.0%	7.3%	41.3%	27.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	23.8%	50.0%	7.3%	41.3%	27.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	23.8%	50.0%	7.3%	41.3%	27.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	25.3%	50.0%	7.3%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	25.3%	50.0%	7.3%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	25.3%	50.0%	7.3%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	25.3%	50.0%	7.3%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	25.3%	50.0%	7.3%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	25.3%	50.0%	7.8%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	25.3%	50.0%	7.8%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	25.3%	50.0%	7.8%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	27.7%	50.0%	7.8%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	27.7%	50.0%	7.8%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	27.7%	50.0%	7.8%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	27.7%	50.0%	7.8%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00	27.7%	50.0%	7.8%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	27.7%	50.0%	21.9%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	27.7%	50.0%	21.9%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00	27.7%	50.0%	21.9%	35.7%	25.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00	29.7%	50.0%	21.9%	46.8%	21.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	29.7%	50.0%	21.9%	46.8%	21.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	29.7%	50.0%	21.9%	46.8%	21.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	29.7%	50.0%	21.9%	46.8%	21.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00	29.7%	50.0%	21.9%	46.8%	21.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00	29.7%	53.8%	12.8%	46.8%	21.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	29.7%	53.8%	12.8%	46.8%	21.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	29.7%	53.8%	12.8%	46.8%	21.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	26.3%	53.8%	12.8%	46.8%	21.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	26.2%	53.8%	12.8%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	26.2%	52.5%	12.8%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	26.2%	52.5%	12.8%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	26.2%	52.5%	12.8%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	26.2%	52.5%	10.2%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	26.2%	52.5%	10.2%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	26.2%	52.5%	10.2%	46.8%	22.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	28.8%	52.5%	10.2%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	28.8%	52.5%	10.2%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	28.8%	52.5%	10.2%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	28.8%	52.5%	10.2%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	28.8%	52.5%	10.2%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	28.8%	52.5%	12.1%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	28.8%	52.5%	12.1%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	28.8%	52.5%	12.1%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	34.2%	52.5%	12.1%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	34.2%	52.5%	12.1%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	34.2%	52.5%	12.1%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:11+00:00	34.2%	52.5%	12.1%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	34.2%	52.5%	12.1%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	34.2%	52.5%	30.3%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	34.2%	52.5%	30.3%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	34.2%	52.5%	30.3%	31.4%	21.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	33.6%	52.5%	30.3%	31.4%	22.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	33.6%	52.5%	30.3%	31.4%	22.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	33.6%	52.5%	30.3%	31.4%	22.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	33.6%	52.5%	30.3%	31.4%	22.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	83.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	82.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	82.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	23%	80.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗