KAUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

34%

31%

30%

23%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.7¢Risks 37.70u

ICONNO 62.3¢Risks 62.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.30u · ICON −62.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	45.0%	—	—	57.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	51.3%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.4%	31.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	77.0%	17.5%	0.1%	—	44.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	32.3%	65.7%	14.0%	—	35.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	27.0%	7.0%	21.6%	—	20.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	20.6%	24.2%	10.8%	—	31.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	25.8%	23.2%	9.7%	—	31.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	7.5%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	24.8%	24.1%	10.5%	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	27.1%	37.6%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	28.2%	35.6%	12.9%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	23.1%	38.8%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	24.0%	34.8%	18.3%	—	22.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	24.9%	33.5%	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	25.1%	34.0%	9.0%	0.0%	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	28.8%	35.5%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	31.1%	32.1%	12.5%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	28.6%	19.8%	0.0%	—	16.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	27.0%	17.5%	11.6%	0.0%	14.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	26.3%	16.7%	11.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	32.0%	17.4%	10.6%	17.4%	21.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	32.5%	12.8%	9.8%	—	11.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	29.5%	19.1%	8.9%	10.7%	10.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	30.0%	13.2%	9.8%	—	13.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	44.2%	10.8%	12.2%	17.2%	18.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	32.5%	16.2%	—	8.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	83.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	82.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	81.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	82.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	23%	80.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗