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KAUS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
6%
EPS
5%
AIFS
3%
ICON
2%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 3.2¢Risks 0.80u
VS
WN2NO 96.8¢Risks 24.20u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +24.20u · WN2 −24.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.4% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.0% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.1% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 28.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.3% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-13 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:005.1%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:006.4%————6.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:0010.3%————7.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:007.7%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:001.7%————7.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0024.4%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:001.7%————6.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:004.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0014.0%————6.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0010.3%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:002.4%————6.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.6%————12.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:001.5%————21.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:007.7%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.9%————23.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:004.2%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0012.7%————23.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:008.0%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0012.9%————24.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:003.6%—1.9%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:004.7%————20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:003.5%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:009.3%—18.1%——27.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.2%—35.0%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.2%—21.7%——15.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.1%—28.0%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%9.3%——19.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.5%—37.1%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.7%44.4%3.5%0.0%—15.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.7%—33.3%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.7%8.4%30.4%2.3%—10.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.0%—1.1%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.9%5.8%0.8%4.1%—3.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.9%—6.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.5%3.4%4.5%1.2%—6.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:003.1%—15.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.6%4.5%3.8%0.9%—6.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:001.2%0.6%7.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.7%3.8%3.6%0.9%—3.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.7%4.1%7.5%——3.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.7%4.1%6.3%1.1%—2.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.5%2.7%7.0%——2.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.6%2.7%5.4%1.7%—2.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.3%2.7%4.7%——1.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%2.5%4.4%0.4%0.0%0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%3.0%4.5%——0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.1%3.1%3.3%0.6%—1.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.1%2.4%1.2%0.0%—0.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.1%1.9%0.8%0.4%0.0%0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%1.6%0.7%0.4%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%2.1%0.6%0.2%0.6%0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%1.9%0.3%0.2%—0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%1.3%0.5%0.1%0.2%0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%1.2%0.2%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%2.5%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.9%0.2%—0.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend9%84.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast7%84.0°F3.1°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES6%82.0°F4.1°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%83.5°F3.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%81.1°F4.1°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON2%81.1°F3.6°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%81.1°F3.1°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261020-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗