KAUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

33%

30%

27%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.5¢Risks 29.55u

WN2NO 70.5¢Risks 70.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.45u · WN2 −70.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	0.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	31.2%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	3.5%	58.7%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	33.0%	41.6%	0.1%	—	28.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	21.5%	47.8%	12.8%	—	39.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	16.4%	42.4%	10.7%	—	36.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	21.2%	20.1%	25.5%	—	29.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	28.6%	33.8%	25.1%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	11.1%	40.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	28.4%	33.0%	16.7%	—	32.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	28.7%	44.6%	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	27.4%	44.5%	12.9%	—	20.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	29.2%	41.5%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	27.1%	42.3%	11.6%	—	27.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	24.1%	38.2%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	23.5%	34.0%	8.6%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	30.7%	31.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	33.1%	33.1%	7.3%	—	26.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	32.6%	30.5%	0.0%	—	13.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	32.0%	30.0%	8.5%	0.0%	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	34.7%	26.3%	7.4%	—	14.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	42.6%	19.9%	10.6%	7.5%	21.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	3.7%	15.0%	—	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	76%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	85.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	83.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	83.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	83.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	81.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗