KAUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

33%

30%

27%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.5¢Risks 29.55u

WN2NO 70.5¢Risks 70.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.45u · WN2 −70.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	34.7%	62.6%	15.4%	60.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	34.7%	62.6%	15.4%	60.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	34.7%	62.6%	13.6%	60.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	34.7%	62.6%	13.6%	60.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	34.7%	62.6%	13.6%	60.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	34.7%	62.6%	13.6%	60.3%	42.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	30.1%	62.6%	13.6%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	30.1%	62.6%	13.6%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	30.1%	62.6%	13.6%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	30.1%	62.6%	13.6%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	30.1%	62.6%	12.4%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	30.1%	62.6%	12.4%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	30.1%	62.6%	12.4%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	30.1%	62.6%	12.4%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	27.1%	62.6%	12.4%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	27.1%	62.6%	12.4%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	27.1%	62.6%	12.4%	39.0%	42.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	25.6%	58.9%	10.6%	40.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	25.6%	51.3%	10.6%	40.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	25.6%	51.3%	10.6%	40.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	25.6%	51.3%	9.1%	40.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	25.6%	51.3%	9.1%	40.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	25.6%	51.3%	9.1%	40.3%	32.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	9.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	9.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	9.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	9.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	9.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	10.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	10.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	27.1%	51.3%	10.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	27.9%	51.3%	10.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	27.9%	51.3%	10.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	27.9%	51.3%	10.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	27.9%	51.3%	10.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:15+00:00	27.9%	51.3%	10.1%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	27.9%	51.3%	18.7%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	27.9%	51.3%	18.7%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00	27.9%	51.3%	18.7%	39.4%	29.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00	34.7%	51.3%	18.7%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	34.7%	51.3%	18.7%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	34.7%	51.3%	18.7%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	34.7%	51.3%	18.7%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00	34.7%	51.3%	18.7%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00	34.7%	52.5%	11.6%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	34.7%	52.5%	11.6%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	34.7%	52.5%	11.6%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	26.1%	52.5%	11.6%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	26.0%	52.5%	11.6%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	26.0%	51.3%	11.6%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	26.0%	51.3%	11.6%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	26.0%	51.3%	11.6%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	26.0%	51.3%	8.3%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	26.0%	51.3%	8.3%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	26.0%	51.3%	8.3%	50.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	27.6%	51.3%	8.3%	33.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	27.6%	51.3%	8.3%	33.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	27.6%	51.3%	8.3%	33.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	27.6%	51.3%	8.3%	33.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	27.6%	51.3%	8.3%	33.0%	29.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	27.6%	51.3%	7.8%	33.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	27.6%	51.3%	7.8%	33.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	27.6%	51.3%	7.8%	33.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	26.8%	51.3%	7.8%	33.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	26.8%	51.3%	7.8%	33.0%	29.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	26.8%	51.3%	7.8%	33.0%	29.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	76%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	85.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	83.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	30%	83.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	83.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	81.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗