KAUS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

11%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 5.8¢Risks 2.88u

WN2NO 94.2¢Risks 47.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.12u · WN2 −47.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	12.7%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.6%	32.4%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	12.6%	18.0%	0.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	6.4%	21.5%	3.1%	—	16.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	4.1%	16.9%	2.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	5.5%	5.1%	7.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	8.0%	10.4%	6.6%	—	10.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.9%	13.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	7.3%	9.4%	3.2%	—	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	7.1%	15.0%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	6.3%	14.4%	2.0%	—	3.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.7%	12.2%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.6%	12.1%	1.5%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.4%	9.6%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.0%	7.4%	0.8%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.8%	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	6.2%	6.2%	0.5%	—	4.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.7%	5.1%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	5.1%	4.5%	0.5%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.5%	3.3%	0.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	7.5%	1.8%	0.6%	0.4%	2.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	1.0%	—	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	11%	84.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	85.5°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	83.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	83.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	84.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	82.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Austin · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗