KAUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

15%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u

WN2NO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.55u · WN2 −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	25.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	56.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	42.5%	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	41.0%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	28.2%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	9.9%	17.1%	0.0%	—	23.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	43.4%	9.3%	10.6%	—	21.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	26.4%	15.1%	11.8%	—	20.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	23.0%	16.4%	8.7%	—	21.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	17.9%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	18.4%	20.1%	4.5%	—	12.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	5.1%	20.8%	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	12.7%	24.1%	4.3%	—	12.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	12.1%	19.6%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	12.4%	17.2%	3.0%	—	8.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	8.4%	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	13.6%	16.5%	2.1%	—	10.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.3%	9.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	8.6%	7.4%	2.1%	—	4.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	10.1%	6.2%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	13.7%	9.0%	0.7%	1.7%	6.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	26.7%	0.0%	—	3.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	15%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	86.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	85.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	85.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	83.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	83.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 90°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗