KAUS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST5%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

15%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u

WN2NO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.55u · WN2 −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:10+00:00	19.7%	32.0%	19.2%	43.1%	0.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	19.7%	32.0%	19.2%	43.1%	0.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	19.7%	32.0%	19.2%	43.1%	0.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	19.7%	32.0%	19.2%	43.1%	0.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:41+00:00	19.7%	32.0%	11.9%	43.1%	0.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	19.7%	32.0%	11.9%	43.1%	0.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	19.7%	29.6%	11.9%	43.1%	0.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:32+00:00	19.7%	29.6%	11.9%	43.1%	0.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	25.2%	29.6%	12.3%	43.2%	0.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	25.2%	29.6%	12.3%	43.2%	0.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:31+00:00	25.2%	31.5%	12.3%	43.2%	0.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:11+00:00	25.2%	31.5%	12.3%	43.2%	0.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	25.2%	31.5%	14.8%	43.2%	0.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	25.2%	31.5%	14.8%	43.2%	0.6%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	25.2%	31.5%	14.8%	43.2%	0.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	25.2%	31.5%	14.8%	43.2%	0.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	13.1%	31.5%	14.8%	38.9%	39.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	13.1%	31.5%	14.8%	38.9%	39.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	13.1%	31.5%	14.8%	38.9%	39.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	13.1%	31.5%	14.8%	38.9%	39.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	13.1%	31.5%	14.4%	38.9%	39.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	13.1%	31.5%	14.4%	39.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	13.1%	31.5%	14.4%	39.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	19.1%	31.5%	14.4%	39.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	19.1%	31.5%	14.4%	39.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	19.1%	31.5%	14.4%	39.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	19.1%	31.5%	14.4%	39.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:51+00:00	19.1%	31.5%	14.4%	39.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	19.1%	31.5%	11.9%	39.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	19.1%	31.5%	11.9%	39.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	19.1%	31.5%	11.9%	39.0%	39.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	13.7%	31.5%	11.9%	39.0%	64.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:26+00:00	13.7%	31.5%	11.9%	39.0%	64.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	13.7%	31.5%	11.9%	39.0%	64.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	13.7%	31.5%	11.9%	39.0%	64.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	13.7%	31.5%	11.9%	39.0%	64.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	13.7%	20.1%	8.9%	39.0%	64.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	13.7%	20.1%	8.9%	39.0%	64.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	13.7%	20.1%	8.9%	39.0%	64.8%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	14.9%	20.1%	8.9%	30.3%	64.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	15.0%	20.1%	8.9%	30.3%	65.3%
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00	15.0%	20.9%	8.9%	30.3%	65.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	8.9%	30.3%	65.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	8.9%	30.3%	65.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	9.2%	30.3%	65.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	9.2%	30.3%	65.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	9.2%	30.3%	65.3%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	9.2%	30.3%	52.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	9.2%	30.3%	52.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	9.2%	30.3%	52.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	9.2%	30.3%	52.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	9.2%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	13.7%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	13.7%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	15.0%	20.8%	13.7%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	17.8%	20.8%	13.7%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	17.8%	20.8%	13.7%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	17.8%	20.8%	13.7%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	17.8%	20.8%	13.7%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T04:42:16+00:00	17.8%	20.8%	13.7%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	17.8%	20.8%	12.8%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	17.8%	20.8%	12.8%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	17.8%	20.8%	12.8%	36.9%	52.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:53+00:00	15.7%	20.8%	12.8%	37.1%	43.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	15.7%	20.8%	12.8%	37.1%	43.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	15.7%	20.8%	12.8%	37.1%	43.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	15.7%	20.8%	12.8%	37.1%	43.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	15.7%	20.8%	12.8%	37.1%	43.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	15.7%	41.7%	8.3%	37.1%	43.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	15.7%	41.7%	8.3%	37.1%	43.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	15.7%	41.7%	8.3%	37.1%	43.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	14.3%	41.7%	8.3%	37.1%	43.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	14.2%	41.7%	8.3%	37.1%	43.5%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	14.2%	32.8%	8.3%	37.1%	43.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	14.2%	32.8%	8.3%	37.1%	43.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	14.2%	32.8%	6.6%	37.1%	43.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	14.2%	32.8%	6.6%	37.1%	43.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	14.2%	32.8%	6.6%	37.1%	43.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	14.2%	32.8%	6.6%	37.1%	43.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	12.9%	32.8%	6.6%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	12.9%	32.8%	6.6%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	12.9%	32.8%	6.6%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	12.9%	32.8%	6.6%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	12.9%	32.8%	6.3%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	12.9%	32.8%	6.3%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	12.9%	32.8%	6.3%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	12.9%	32.8%	6.3%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	12.5%	32.8%	6.3%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	12.5%	32.8%	6.3%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	12.5%	32.8%	6.3%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:28+00:00	12.5%	32.8%	6.3%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	12.5%	32.8%	9.0%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	12.5%	32.8%	9.0%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	12.5%	32.8%	9.0%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	12.5%	32.8%	9.0%	26.1%	39.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	8.5%	32.8%	9.0%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	8.5%	32.8%	9.0%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	8.5%	32.8%	9.0%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	8.5%	32.8%	9.0%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	8.5%	20.6%	3.4%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	8.5%	20.6%	3.4%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	8.5%	20.6%	3.4%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	8.5%	20.6%	3.4%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	9.9%	20.6%	3.4%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	9.9%	20.6%	3.4%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	3.4%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	3.4%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	3.6%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	3.6%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	3.6%	23.0%	23.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	3.6%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	3.6%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	3.6%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	3.6%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	3.6%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	2.8%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	2.8%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	9.9%	15.0%	2.8%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	9.6%	15.0%	2.8%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	9.6%	15.0%	2.8%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	9.6%	15.0%	2.8%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	9.6%	15.0%	2.8%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:17+00:00	9.6%	15.0%	2.8%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	9.6%	15.0%	7.0%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	9.6%	15.0%	7.0%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00	9.6%	15.0%	7.0%	23.6%	24.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00	9.1%	15.0%	7.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	9.1%	15.0%	7.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	9.1%	15.0%	7.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	9.1%	15.0%	7.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00	9.1%	15.0%	7.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00	9.1%	16.0%	2.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	9.1%	16.0%	2.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	9.1%	16.0%	2.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	5.3%	16.0%	2.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	5.3%	16.0%	2.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	5.3%	15.2%	2.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	5.3%	15.2%	2.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	5.3%	15.2%	2.0%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	5.3%	15.2%	1.2%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	5.3%	15.2%	1.2%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	5.3%	15.2%	1.2%	22.3%	17.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	6.4%	15.2%	1.2%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	6.4%	15.2%	1.2%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	6.4%	15.2%	1.2%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	6.4%	15.2%	1.2%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	6.4%	15.2%	1.2%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	6.4%	15.2%	1.3%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	6.4%	15.2%	1.3%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	6.4%	15.2%	1.3%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	6.1%	15.2%	1.3%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	6.1%	15.2%	1.3%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	6.1%	15.2%	1.3%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:13+00:00	6.1%	15.2%	1.3%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	6.1%	15.2%	1.3%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	6.1%	15.2%	4.0%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	6.1%	15.2%	4.0%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	6.1%	15.2%	4.0%	12.6%	12.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	6.9%	15.2%	4.0%	12.6%	11.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	6.9%	15.2%	4.0%	12.6%	11.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	6.9%	15.2%	4.0%	12.6%	11.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	6.9%	15.2%	4.0%	12.6%	11.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00	6.9%	15.1%	1.9%	15.9%	11.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	6.9%	15.1%	1.9%	15.9%	11.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	6.9%	15.1%	1.9%	15.9%	11.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	6.9%	15.1%	1.9%	15.9%	11.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	6.9%	14.7%	1.9%	15.9%	11.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	85.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	15%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	86.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	85.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	8%	85.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	83.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	83.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261022-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 90°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗