KAUS / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

64%

51%

26%

21%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.7¢Risks 42.70u

WN2NO 57.3¢Risks 57.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.30u · WN2 −57.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	59.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	51.2%	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	66.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	54.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	0.1%	26.0%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	67.0%	55.6%	0.5%	—	45.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	62.9%	44.9%	39.2%	—	49.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	58.3%	44.7%	28.3%	—	39.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	47.7%	—	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	57.1%	47.6%	36.7%	—	39.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	45.9%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	50.8%	38.5%	33.0%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	32.6%	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	58.7%	41.3%	37.1%	—	39.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	53.6%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	46.3%	33.0%	32.2%	—	28.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	50.9%	29.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	56.8%	32.1%	33.0%	18.3%	34.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	41.1%	—	—	21.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	64%	86.5°F	2.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	86.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	85.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	85.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	82.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	82.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261023-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗