KAUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

64%

57%

40%

34%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 51.1¢Risks 51.05u

WN2NO 48.9¢Risks 48.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.95u · WN2 −48.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	51.3%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	67.0%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	39.6%	45.1%	0.2%	—	37.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	34.3%	47.8%	36.4%	—	39.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	35.1%	34.4%	44.7%	—	38.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	39.0%	37.5%	35.9%	—	42.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	52.5%	40.1%	38.5%	—	32.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	23.3%	42.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	50.0%	41.3%	46.5%	43.9%	37.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	47.3%	—	—	29.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	86.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	64%	87.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	86.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	84.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	84.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗