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KAUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
68%
ICON
64%
HRES
57%
AIFS
40%
WN2
34%
Consensus
55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 51.1¢Risks 51.05u
VS
WN2NO 48.9¢Risks 48.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +48.95u · WN2 −48.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T04:05:14+00:00AIFS Single: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00AIFS Single: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 40.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-20T04:05:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-20T04:05:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 30.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T04:05:14+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 57.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 57.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00ICON: 68.9% · 2026-10-20T04:05:14+00:00ICON: 68.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 68.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00ICON: 68.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 68.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 63.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 63.7% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0010-20 04:0510-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:05:14+00:0034.3%75.6%30.5%57.5%68.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0034.3%75.6%30.5%57.5%68.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:0034.3%75.6%36.7%57.5%68.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0034.3%75.6%36.7%57.5%68.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:0034.3%75.6%36.7%57.5%68.9%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:0040.5%75.6%36.7%57.5%63.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0040.5%75.6%36.7%57.5%63.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0040.5%75.6%36.7%57.5%63.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:0040.5%75.6%36.7%57.5%63.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:0040.5%67.8%34.3%57.1%63.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0040.5%67.8%34.3%57.1%63.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0040.5%67.8%34.3%57.1%63.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0040.5%67.8%34.3%57.1%63.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0040.5%67.8%34.3%57.2%63.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble68%86.7°F2.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON64%87.2°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES57%86.4°F5.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%86.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%86.0°F4.5°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single40%84.4°F4.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 234%84.0°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 20 · 04:05 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗