KAUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

53%

52%

26%

23%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.7¢Risks 42.70u

WN2NO 57.3¢Risks 57.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.30u · WN2 −57.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	44.8%	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	43.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	0.0%	60.7%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	33.0%	38.2%	0.1%	—	31.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	27.9%	40.6%	29.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	28.3%	27.7%	37.2%	—	30.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	31.6%	30.1%	28.8%	—	34.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	44.2%	32.2%	30.8%	—	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	17.3%	34.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	41.3%	33.0%	37.9%	35.4%	29.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	38.5%	—	—	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	87%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	87.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	87.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	53%	86.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	52%	86.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	83.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	83.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 87°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗