KAUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

41%

38%

25%

17%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.4¢Risks 32.40u

WN2NO 67.6¢Risks 67.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.60u · WN2 −67.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	23.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	38.4%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	0.0%	54.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	26.9%	31.7%	0.1%	—	25.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	22.1%	33.7%	23.7%	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	22.2%	21.6%	30.3%	—	24.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	24.8%	23.6%	22.4%	—	27.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	36.1%	25.1%	23.8%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	12.3%	26.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	33.0%	25.5%	29.9%	27.7%	22.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	30.2%	—	—	16.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	48%	87.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	86.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	86.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	37%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	84.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	84.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗