KAUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

27%

14%

13%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.4¢Risks 19.40u

WN2NO 80.6¢Risks 80.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.60u · WN2 −80.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	24.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	26.8%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.0%	40.6%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	16.6%	20.4%	0.0%	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	12.8%	21.5%	14.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	12.5%	12.2%	18.4%	—	14.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	14.0%	13.1%	12.3%	—	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	21.9%	13.8%	12.9%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	5.6%	14.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	19.0%	13.6%	16.7%	15.1%	11.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	16.6%	—	—	7.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	87.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	86.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	86.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	84.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	84.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 90°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗