KAUS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST12%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

27%

14%

13%

Consensus

12%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.4¢Risks 19.40u

WN2NO 80.6¢Risks 80.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.60u · WN2 −80.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:53+00:00	12.6%	43.4%	14.4%	32.1%	2.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	12.6%	43.4%	14.4%	32.1%	2.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	12.6%	43.4%	14.4%	32.1%	2.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	12.6%	43.4%	14.4%	32.1%	2.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	12.6%	43.4%	14.4%	32.1%	2.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	12.6%	42.4%	12.4%	32.1%	2.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	12.6%	42.4%	12.4%	32.1%	2.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	12.6%	42.4%	12.4%	32.1%	2.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	15.7%	42.4%	12.4%	32.1%	2.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	15.7%	42.4%	12.4%	32.1%	2.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:07+00:00	15.7%	33.4%	12.4%	32.1%	2.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	15.7%	33.4%	12.4%	32.1%	2.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	15.7%	33.4%	10.5%	32.1%	2.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	15.7%	33.4%	10.5%	32.1%	2.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	15.7%	33.4%	10.5%	32.1%	2.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	15.7%	33.4%	10.5%	32.1%	2.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	12.6%	33.4%	10.5%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	12.6%	33.4%	10.5%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	12.6%	33.4%	10.5%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	12.6%	33.4%	10.5%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	12.6%	33.4%	9.2%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	12.6%	33.4%	9.2%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	12.6%	33.4%	9.2%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	12.6%	33.4%	9.2%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	13.3%	33.4%	9.2%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	13.3%	33.4%	9.2%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	13.3%	33.4%	9.2%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T04:14:29+00:00	13.3%	33.4%	9.2%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	13.3%	33.4%	10.9%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	13.3%	33.4%	10.9%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	13.3%	33.4%	10.9%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	13.3%	33.4%	10.9%	33.8%	46.8%
2026-10-18T08:01:38+00:00	11.8%	33.4%	10.9%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	11.8%	33.4%	10.9%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	11.8%	33.4%	10.9%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	11.8%	33.4%	10.9%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	11.8%	19.7%	7.3%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:17+00:00	11.8%	19.7%	7.3%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:50+00:00	11.8%	19.7%	7.3%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	11.8%	19.7%	7.3%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	13.0%	20.4%	7.3%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	13.0%	20.4%	7.3%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:33+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.3%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.3%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.9%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.9%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.9%	37.5%	36.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.9%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.9%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.9%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.9%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.9%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.6%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.6%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.6%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.6%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.6%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.6%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.6%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:18+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	7.6%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	10.7%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	10.7%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:23+00:00	13.0%	14.4%	10.7%	36.4%	37.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00	12.9%	14.4%	10.7%	32.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	12.9%	14.4%	10.7%	32.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	12.9%	14.4%	10.7%	32.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	12.9%	14.4%	10.7%	32.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00	12.9%	14.4%	10.7%	32.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:09+00:00	12.9%	19.9%	7.2%	32.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	12.9%	19.9%	7.2%	32.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	12.9%	19.9%	7.2%	32.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	7.2%	32.7%	33.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:03+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	7.2%	32.6%	32.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:49+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	7.2%	32.6%	32.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	7.2%	32.6%	32.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	7.2%	32.6%	32.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:33+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	6.6%	32.6%	32.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:40+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	6.6%	32.6%	32.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:11+00:00	10.5%	19.9%	6.6%	32.6%	32.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:31+00:00	12.0%	19.9%	6.6%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:41+00:00	12.0%	19.9%	6.6%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	12.0%	19.9%	6.6%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	12.0%	19.9%	6.6%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	12.0%	19.9%	6.6%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:30+00:00	12.0%	19.9%	6.9%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:02+00:00	12.0%	19.9%	6.9%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	12.0%	19.9%	6.9%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	11.2%	19.9%	6.9%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	11.2%	19.9%	6.9%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	11.2%	19.9%	6.9%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:15+00:00	11.2%	19.9%	6.9%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	11.2%	19.9%	6.9%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	11.2%	19.9%	9.4%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	11.2%	19.9%	9.4%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	11.2%	19.9%	9.4%	30.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	13.3%	19.9%	9.4%	30.8%	31.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	13.3%	19.9%	9.4%	30.8%	31.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	13.3%	19.9%	9.4%	30.8%	31.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	13.3%	19.9%	9.4%	30.8%	31.8%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00	13.3%	14.1%	7.0%	26.8%	31.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	13.3%	14.1%	7.0%	26.8%	31.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	13.3%	14.1%	7.0%	26.8%	31.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	13.3%	14.1%	7.0%	26.8%	31.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	13.2%	14.1%	7.0%	26.7%	31.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	32%	87.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	86.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	86.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	84.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	84.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 90°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗