KAUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

41%

27%

27%

22%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 34.9¢Risks 34.95u

ICONNO 65.1¢Risks 65.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +65.05u · ICON −65.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	38.0%	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	5.2%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	9.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	0.1%	9.6%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	1.4%	6.7%	0.1%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	33.7%	30.4%	30.4%	10.0%	17.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	5.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	86.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	85.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	84.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	27%	82.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	82.0°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	22%	77.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261026-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 86°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗