KAUS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

50%

32%

13%

12%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 40.2¢Risks 40.25u

ICONNO 59.7¢Risks 59.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +59.75u · ICON −59.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	0.7%	—	52.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	43.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	1.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	1.6%	—	38.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	29.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	37.8%	—	37.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	0.3%	54.7%	41.9%	24.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	83.3°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	82.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	81.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	32%	79.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	74.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	69.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261027-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗