KAUS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

19%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 11.4¢Risks 5.70u

HRESNO 88.6¢Risks 44.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.30u · HRES −44.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	0.1%	—	25.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	18.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	0.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	0.2%	—	14.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	13.0%	—	12.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	6.3%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	0.0%	23.3%	14.7%	6.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	21%	82.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	83.3°F	3.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	81.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	79.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	69.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	74.2°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261027-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗