WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KAUS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST8%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
20%
AIFS
19%
WN2
7%
ICON
5%
HRES
3%
Consensus
8%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 11.4¢Risks 5.70u
VS
HRESNO 88.6¢Risks 44.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.30u · HRES −44.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:01+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 19.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-20T10:54:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T10:54:01+00:00IFS HRES: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 2.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:01+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 4.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:01+00:0019.2%20.0%7.3%2.8%4.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0019.2%20.0%7.3%2.8%4.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0019.2%20.0%7.3%2.8%4.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0019.2%20.0%7.3%2.8%4.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0019.1%20.0%7.3%2.8%4.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend21%82.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble20%83.3°F3.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single19%81.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%79.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON5%69.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES3%74.2°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261027-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: Austin runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗