WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KAUS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
8%
EPS
5%
ICON
2%
WN2
2%
HRES
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 4.5¢Risks 1.12u
VS
HRESNO 95.5¢Risks 23.88u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.88u · HRES −23.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 5.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.4%———0.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.1%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:001.4%———8.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.6%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0018.6%———5.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.6%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.6%———6.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.0%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:006.1%———12.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:003.9%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:004.8%———7.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0012.3%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0016.9%———10.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:006.3%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0017.2%———14.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0017.2%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0017.4%———18.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0012.7%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:002.2%———20.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:002.6%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:005.4%———10.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:003.8%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:004.1%—0.0%—13.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:004.1%—8.7%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:005.3%———13.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:006.7%—0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:002.3%—0.0%—6.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:002.3%—3.5%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:003.1%—5.3%—5.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:003.9%—2.1%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:002.0%0.0%10.8%5.9%2.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend9%82.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single8%81.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%83.3°F3.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON2%69.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%79.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES<1%74.2°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261027-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Austin · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗