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KAUS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
8%
EPS
5%
ICON
2%
WN2
2%
HRES
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 4.5¢Risks 1.12u
VS
HRESNO 95.5¢Risks 23.88u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.88u · HRES −23.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:03+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 8.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-20T10:54:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:03+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:03+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:0010-20 10:5410-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:54:03+00:008.2%5.1%2.1%0.9%2.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:008.2%5.1%2.1%0.9%2.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:008.2%5.1%2.1%0.9%2.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:008.2%5.1%2.1%0.9%2.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:008.1%5.1%2.1%0.9%2.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend9%82.0°F5.5°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single8%81.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%83.3°F3.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON2%69.9°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%79.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES<1%74.2°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261027-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 20 · 10:54 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Austin · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗