KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

41%

29%

23%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.1¢Risks 47.10u

ICONNO 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.90u · ICON −52.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	1.3%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	2.5%	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	40.3%	11.9%	14.5%	—	36.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	58.7%	58.7%	47.1%	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	42.4%	73.6%	59.1%	44.7%	—	38.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	58.7%	71.2%	39.0%	—	33.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	0.6%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	51.7%	73.5%	21.9%	—	27.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	26.0%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	22.1%	55.2%	15.6%	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	24.9%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	13.4%	33.0%	6.3%	—	6.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	17.7%	28.4%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	18.3%	22.5%	8.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	11.4%	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	14.5%	21.2%	6.7%	—	10.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	15.6%	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	12.5%	23.8%	6.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	12.3%	24.9%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	10.0%	26.0%	7.6%	—	10.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	11.4%	25.3%	6.2%	—	9.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	8.0%	27.6%	6.7%	6.3%	8.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	5.3%	23.8%	5.3%	—	7.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	6.5%	26.2%	5.7%	3.5%	7.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	13.9%	23.2%	4.3%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	16.3%	24.5%	5.1%	6.8%	5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	14.4%	21.3%	3.2%	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	12.5%	17.1%	2.6%	3.7%	1.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.0%	16.0%	4.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	73.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0117
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
AIFS Single	41%	69.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	29%	68.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.5027
IFS HRES	23%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5868
ICON	5%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.9025

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗