KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

41%

29%

23%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.1¢Risks 47.10u

ICONNO 52.9¢Risks 52.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.90u · ICON −52.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T02:59:44+00:00	37.3%	89.2%	62.4%	39.7%	68.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	37.3%	89.2%	62.4%	39.7%	68.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	37.3%	89.2%	62.4%	39.7%	68.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	37.3%	89.2%	62.4%	39.7%	68.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	37.3%	89.2%	62.4%	39.7%	68.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00	37.3%	89.2%	62.4%	39.7%	68.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	41.4%	89.2%	62.4%	39.7%	34.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00	41.4%	89.2%	62.4%	39.7%	34.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	41.4%	89.2%	62.4%	39.7%	34.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	41.4%	89.2%	62.4%	39.7%	34.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00	41.4%	89.2%	62.4%	26.1%	34.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	41.4%	69.8%	38.4%	26.1%	34.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	41.4%	69.8%	38.4%	26.1%	34.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	41.4%	69.8%	38.4%	26.1%	34.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	38.0%	69.8%	38.4%	26.1%	34.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	38.0%	69.8%	38.4%	26.1%	35.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:14+00:00	38.0%	73.3%	38.4%	26.1%	35.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	38.0%	73.3%	38.4%	26.1%	35.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	38.0%	73.3%	38.4%	26.1%	35.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	38.0%	73.3%	33.4%	26.1%	35.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	38.0%	73.3%	33.4%	26.1%	35.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	38.0%	73.3%	33.4%	26.1%	35.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	39.7%	73.3%	33.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	39.7%	73.3%	33.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	39.7%	73.3%	33.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	39.7%	73.3%	33.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	39.7%	73.3%	33.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	39.7%	74.0%	31.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	39.7%	74.0%	31.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	39.7%	74.0%	31.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	39.7%	74.0%	31.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	39.7%	74.0%	31.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	39.7%	74.0%	31.4%	24.8%	26.0%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	39.3%	87.6%	23.9%	27.9%	9.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	39.3%	87.6%	28.1%	27.9%	9.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	39.3%	87.6%	28.1%	27.9%	9.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	39.3%	87.6%	28.1%	27.9%	9.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:25+00:00	42.0%	87.6%	28.1%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	42.0%	87.6%	28.1%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	42.0%	87.6%	28.1%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	42.0%	87.6%	28.1%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	42.0%	87.6%	28.1%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	42.0%	89.3%	23.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	42.0%	89.3%	23.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	42.0%	89.3%	23.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	41.0%	89.3%	23.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	41.0%	88.8%	23.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	23.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	23.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	19.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	19.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	19.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	19.5%	25.9%	5.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	42.0%	89.2%	19.5%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	42.0%	89.2%	19.5%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	42.0%	89.2%	19.5%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	42.0%	89.2%	19.5%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	42.0%	89.2%	18.6%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	42.0%	89.2%	18.6%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	42.0%	89.2%	18.6%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	42.0%	89.2%	18.6%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	18.6%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	18.6%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	18.6%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:54+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	18.6%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	29.1%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	29.1%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	29.1%	23.4%	5.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	41.0%	89.2%	29.1%	23.4%	5.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	73.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0117
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3457
AIFS Single	41%	69.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.3481
WeatherNext 2	29%	68.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.5027
IFS HRES	23%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5868
ICON	5%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.9025

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗