KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

61%

42%

12%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

AIFSNO 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.95u · AIFS −53.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	31.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	21.9%	4.4%	5.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	37.1%	37.1%	26.6%	—	24.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	52.3%	36.5%	23.9%	—	19.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	35.2%	48.4%	18.9%	—	15.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	0.1%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	27.9%	50.0%	8.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	9.9%	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	7.7%	29.9%	4.7%	—	2.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	8.8%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	3.6%	12.9%	1.3%	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	5.1%	10.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	5.1%	6.8%	1.8%	—	1.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	2.5%	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	3.4%	5.8%	1.2%	—	2.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.5%	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.4%	6.2%	1.0%	—	1.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.2%	6.3%	0.0%	—	1.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.5%	6.5%	1.1%	—	1.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.7%	5.8%	0.7%	—	1.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.9%	6.3%	0.7%	0.7%	1.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	4.6%	0.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.6%	5.0%	0.5%	0.2%	0.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.7%	3.7%	0.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.9%	3.7%	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.4%	2.7%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	1.6%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	1.3%	0.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	78.8°F	6.4°F	2026-10-10 00:00	0.6336
IFS HRES	61%	75.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.3672
National Blend	52%	74.0°F	11.0°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.2683
WeatherNext 2	42%	72.4°F	5.3°F	2026-10-10 18:00	0.1747
AIFS Single	12%	67.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.0156

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 74°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗