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KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 74°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 11 · 10:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
80%
HRES
61%
WN2
42%
AIFS
12%
Consensus
46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.05u
VS
AIFSNO 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.95u · AIFS −53.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T07:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-10-11T10:33:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.8% · 2026-10-11T07:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.8% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.8% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.8% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.8% · 2026-10-11T10:33:47+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-11T07:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00IFS HRES: 60.6% · 2026-10-11T10:33:47+00:0010-11 07:3210-11 09:0310-11 10:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRES
2026-10-11T10:33:47+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRES
2026-10-11T07:32:01+00:0012.5%79.6%41.8%60.6%
2026-10-11T08:18:02+00:0012.5%79.6%41.8%60.6%
2026-10-11T09:03:10+00:0012.5%79.6%41.8%60.6%
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:0012.5%79.6%41.8%60.6%
2026-10-11T10:33:47+00:0012.5%79.6%41.8%60.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble80%78.8°F6.4°F2026-10-10 00:000.6336
IFS HRES61%75.2°F6.3°F2026-10-11 00:000.3672
National Blend52%74.0°F11.0°F2026-10-11 00:000.2683
WeatherNext 242%72.4°F5.3°F2026-10-10 18:000.1747
AIFS Single12%67.1°F5.6°F2026-10-11 00:000.0156

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 11 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 74°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗