KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

42%

26%

17%

13%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.60u

AIFSNO 67.4¢Risks 67.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.40u · AIFS −67.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	25.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.2%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	17.1%	3.0%	3.9%	—	14.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	30.4%	30.4%	21.0%	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	44.7%	29.6%	18.4%	—	14.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	28.1%	40.5%	14.0%	—	11.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	0.0%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	21.3%	41.7%	5.3%	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	6.7%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	5.0%	22.8%	2.9%	—	1.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	5.7%	12.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	2.1%	8.6%	0.7%	—	0.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.0%	6.4%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	3.0%	4.2%	1.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.4%	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.8%	3.4%	0.6%	—	1.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	1.9%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.2%	3.5%	0.5%	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.1%	3.5%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.7%	3.5%	0.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.8%	3.1%	0.3%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.4%	3.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	2.2%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	2.4%	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	1.7%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	1.6%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.4%	0.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
IFS Ensemble	52%	74.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2735
National Blend	45%	74.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2025
ICON	42%	73.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1756
WeatherNext 2	26%	71.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0655
IFS HRES	17%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0289
AIFS Single	13%	68.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0166

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗