KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 75°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

42%

26%

17%

13%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 32.6¢Risks 32.60u

AIFSNO 67.4¢Risks 67.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.40u · AIFS −67.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T15:26:58+00:00	37.4%	50.0%	40.5%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	37.4%	48.3%	40.5%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	37.4%	48.3%	33.9%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	37.4%	48.3%	33.9%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	37.4%	48.3%	33.9%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	37.4%	48.3%	33.9%	48.8%	54.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	40.3%	48.3%	33.9%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	40.3%	48.3%	33.9%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	40.3%	48.3%	33.9%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	40.3%	48.3%	33.9%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	40.3%	48.3%	38.0%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	40.3%	48.3%	38.0%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	40.3%	48.3%	38.0%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	40.3%	48.3%	38.0%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	33.9%	48.3%	38.0%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	33.9%	48.3%	38.0%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	33.9%	48.3%	38.0%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:49+00:00	33.9%	48.3%	38.0%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	33.9%	48.3%	40.5%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	33.9%	48.3%	40.5%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	33.9%	48.3%	40.5%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	33.9%	48.3%	40.5%	33.5%	65.5%
2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00	30.5%	48.3%	40.5%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	30.5%	48.3%	40.5%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	30.5%	48.3%	40.5%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	30.5%	48.3%	40.5%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	30.5%	47.7%	19.5%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	30.5%	47.7%	19.5%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	30.5%	47.7%	19.5%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	30.5%	47.7%	19.5%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	24.6%	47.7%	19.7%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	24.6%	52.3%	19.7%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	24.6%	52.3%	19.7%	21.8%	48.0%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	24.6%	52.3%	19.7%	22.1%	48.0%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	24.6%	52.3%	17.1%	22.1%	48.0%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	24.6%	52.3%	17.1%	22.1%	48.0%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	24.6%	52.3%	17.1%	22.1%	48.0%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	32.1%	52.3%	17.1%	22.1%	41.9%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	32.1%	52.3%	17.1%	22.1%	41.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	32.1%	52.3%	17.1%	22.1%	41.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	32.1%	52.3%	17.1%	22.1%	41.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	32.1%	52.3%	17.1%	17.4%	41.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	32.1%	52.3%	25.6%	17.0%	41.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	32.1%	52.3%	25.6%	17.0%	41.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	32.1%	52.3%	25.6%	17.0%	41.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	12.9%	52.3%	25.6%	17.0%	41.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	12.9%	52.3%	25.6%	17.0%	41.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2905
IFS Ensemble	52%	74.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.2735
National Blend	45%	74.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2025
ICON	42%	73.3°F	5.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1756
WeatherNext 2	26%	71.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0655
IFS HRES	17%	69.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0289
AIFS Single	13%	68.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0166

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 15:26 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 75°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗