KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≤ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

19%

12%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 23.8¢Risks 23.85u

EPSNO 76.2¢Risks 76.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +76.15u · EPS −76.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	—	—	—	25.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	90.5%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	84.7%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	84.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	97.0%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	93.0%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	20.9%	54.9%	50.0%	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	9.3%	9.3%	15.2%	—	17.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	8.4%	15.5%	—	19.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	7.8%	3.9%	17.9%	—	21.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	90.1%	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	9.7%	3.0%	31.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.9%	26.0%	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	29.1%	7.3%	37.9%	—	47.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	24.9%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	39.1%	17.2%	55.5%	—	56.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	30.9%	19.6%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	28.7%	24.0%	46.1%	—	45.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	38.2%	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	31.2%	22.7%	47.9%	—	38.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	27.9%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	31.1%	17.6%	44.5%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	29.6%	15.4%	100.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	32.0%	13.4%	37.4%	—	31.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	27.3%	12.6%	39.3%	—	30.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	32.0%	10.0%	35.4%	36.5%	29.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	37.3%	10.9%	37.3%	—	30.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	30.7%	8.4%	33.1%	42.0%	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	15.6%	8.6%	35.0%	—	30.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	11.5%	6.8%	29.3%	24.5%	28.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	11.2%	7.0%	33.8%	—	33.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	11.0%	7.7%	33.1%	27.6%	40.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	7.3%	6.8%	20.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	48%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2275
IFS HRES	19%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0353
WeatherNext 2	12%	67.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0146
AIFS Single	10%	69.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0096
NWS forecast	2%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.0003
National Blend	<1%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	73.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 64°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-LE64
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗