KBHM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≤ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

19%

12%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 23.8¢Risks 23.85u

EPSNO 76.2¢Risks 76.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +76.15u · EPS −76.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00	13.9%	0.1%	3.8%	28.8%	19.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	13.9%	0.5%	9.4%	28.8%	19.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	13.9%	0.5%	9.4%	28.8%	19.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	13.9%	0.5%	9.4%	28.8%	19.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	15.9%	0.5%	9.4%	28.8%	19.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	15.9%	0.5%	9.4%	28.8%	19.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:14+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	9.4%	28.8%	19.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:55+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	9.4%	28.8%	19.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	9.4%	28.8%	19.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	11.8%	28.8%	19.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	11.8%	28.8%	19.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	15.9%	0.4%	11.8%	28.8%	19.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	14.8%	0.4%	11.8%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	14.8%	0.4%	11.8%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	14.8%	0.4%	11.8%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	14.8%	0.4%	11.8%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	14.8%	0.4%	11.8%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	12.9%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:41+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	12.9%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	12.9%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	12.9%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:29+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	12.9%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	12.9%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:06+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	12.9%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	12.9%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	10.3%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	10.3%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:36+00:00	14.8%	0.3%	10.3%	30.2%	27.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:37+00:00	13.2%	0.3%	10.3%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	13.2%	0.3%	10.3%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	13.2%	0.3%	10.3%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:31+00:00	13.2%	0.3%	10.3%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:50+00:00	13.2%	0.3%	10.3%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:17+00:00	13.2%	0.3%	9.6%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:50+00:00	13.2%	0.3%	9.6%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:18+00:00	13.2%	0.3%	9.6%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	11.7%	0.4%	9.6%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	11.7%	0.4%	9.6%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:05+00:00	11.7%	0.2%	9.6%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	11.7%	0.2%	9.6%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	11.7%	0.2%	10.1%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	11.7%	0.2%	10.1%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	11.7%	0.2%	10.1%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	11.7%	0.2%	10.1%	23.0%	22.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	12.4%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	12.4%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	12.4%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	12.4%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	12.4%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	12.4%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	12.4%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:04+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	12.4%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00	13.6%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	25.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00	13.4%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	13.4%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	13.4%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	13.4%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00	13.4%	0.2%	10.1%	23.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	12.9%	23.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	12.9%	23.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	13.4%	0.0%	12.9%	23.7%	33.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.9%	21.0%	33.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.9%	21.0%	33.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:29+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.9%	21.0%	33.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.9%	21.0%	33.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.9%	21.0%	33.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.3%	21.0%	33.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.3%	21.0%	33.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.3%	21.0%	33.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.3%	21.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.3%	21.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.3%	21.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.3%	21.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	12.3%	19.0%	35.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	11.0%	19.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:36+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	11.0%	19.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	12.4%	0.0%	11.0%	19.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	11.0%	19.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	11.0%	19.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	11.0%	19.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	11.0%	19.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	11.4%	0.0%	11.0%	19.0%	35.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	11.5%	16.7%	47.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	11.5%	16.7%	47.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	11.5%	16.7%	47.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	11.5%	16.7%	47.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	9.3%	0.0%	11.5%	18.8%	47.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	9.3%	0.0%	11.5%	18.8%	47.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	9.3%	0.0%	11.5%	18.8%	47.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	9.3%	0.0%	11.5%	18.8%	47.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	9.3%	0.0%	12.1%	18.8%	47.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	9.3%	0.0%	12.1%	18.8%	47.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	9.3%	0.0%	12.1%	18.8%	47.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	9.3%	0.0%	12.1%	18.8%	47.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	12.1%	18.8%	47.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	12.1%	18.8%	47.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	9.8%	0.0%	12.1%	18.8%	47.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	48%	64.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2275
IFS HRES	19%	67.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0353
WeatherNext 2	12%	67.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0146
AIFS Single	10%	69.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0096
NWS forecast	2%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.0003
National Blend	<1%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	73.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 64°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261018-TMAX-LE64
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗