KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

63%

53%

31%

28%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.1¢Risks 55.10u

ICONNO 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.90u · ICON −44.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	36.6%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	13.2%	84.1%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	56.3%	50.7%	10.2%	—	63.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	69.0%	60.1%	46.4%	—	65.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	74.2%	80.0%	65.6%	—	64.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	90.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	67.0%	91.3%	30.9%	—	40.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	0.2%	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	30.0%	50.8%	51.7%	—	29.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	19.6%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	48.2%	69.3%	34.6%	—	34.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	35.9%	73.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	36.4%	54.6%	30.6%	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	49.0%	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	31.3%	37.6%	37.6%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	36.3%	47.0%	—	—	41.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	35.9%	49.0%	21.2%	—	34.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	47.9%	41.6%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	37.1%	43.5%	12.5%	0.0%	29.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	33.6%	41.0%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	40.8%	43.0%	10.0%	14.0%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	51.2%	42.8%	10.8%	—	24.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.8%	53.7%	42.6%	8.9%	0.0%	19.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	52.6%	37.3%	7.7%	—	17.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	39.4%	36.8%	7.0%	10.7%	12.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	37.7%	36.3%	7.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	37.2%	41.4%	7.3%	18.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	73.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	70.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	28%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗