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KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
82%
AIFS
63%
WN2
53%
HRES
31%
ICON
28%
Consensus
60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 55.1¢Risks 55.10u
VS
ICONNO 44.9¢Risks 44.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.90u · ICON −44.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-16T04:24:04+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00AIFS Single: 61.1% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00AIFS Single: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00AIFS Single: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00AIFS Single: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00AIFS Single: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00AIFS Single: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00AIFS Single: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00AIFS Single: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00AIFS Single: 60.1% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:40+00:00AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00AIFS Single: 62.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T04:24:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 94.5% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.7% · 2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 97.6% · 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-19T04:30:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 82.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 75.8% · 2026-10-16T04:24:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 71.4% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 67.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T04:24:04+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00IFS HRES: 42.1% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00IFS HRES: 49.1% · 2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00IFS HRES: 49.1% · 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00IFS HRES: 31.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:40+00:00IFS HRES: 31.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00IFS HRES: 31.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00IFS HRES: 31.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T04:24:04+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:00ICON: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:00ICON: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00ICON: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00ICON: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00ICON: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:00ICON: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:00ICON: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00ICON: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00ICON: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:00ICON: 37.2% · 2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-19T04:30:40+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0010-16 04:2410-16 11:1210-19 06:47
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T04:24:04+00:0061.1%94.5%75.8%42.1%51.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:27+00:0061.1%94.5%71.4%42.1%51.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:0061.1%94.5%71.4%42.1%51.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:03+00:0061.1%94.5%71.4%42.1%51.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:14+00:0060.1%94.5%71.4%42.1%37.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:0060.1%94.5%71.4%42.1%37.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:0060.1%94.5%71.4%42.1%37.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:0060.1%94.5%71.4%42.1%37.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:56+00:0060.1%94.5%71.4%42.1%37.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:16+00:0060.1%97.7%67.2%42.1%37.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:0060.1%97.7%67.2%42.1%37.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:0060.1%97.7%67.2%42.1%37.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:28+00:0064.6%97.7%67.2%49.1%37.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:44+00:0064.6%97.6%67.2%49.1%37.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:40+00:0062.9%82.5%34.0%31.4%27.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:03+00:0062.9%82.5%52.7%31.4%27.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:12+00:0062.9%82.5%52.7%31.4%27.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:0062.9%82.5%52.7%31.4%27.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble82%73.3°F3.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend75%72.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single63%71.8°F3.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
NWS forecast59%71.0°F2.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%70.7°F2.9°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES31%68.7°F3.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
ICON28%68.4°F3.5°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗