KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

43%

15%

14%

12%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 36.4¢Risks 36.45u

ICONNO 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +63.55u · ICON −63.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	25.2%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	7.2%	74.6%	—	—	56.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	42.3%	36.9%	5.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	55.1%	45.6%	32.3%	—	51.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.6%	60.6%	67.7%	50.8%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	51.6%	83.2%	18.4%	—	26.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	0.1%	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	17.3%	34.5%	35.3%	—	16.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	9.9%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	31.4%	52.6%	20.2%	—	20.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	20.9%	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	20.9%	36.4%	16.6%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	30.9%	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	16.5%	21.0%	21.0%	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	19.7%	28.2%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	19.0%	29.4%	9.4%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	27.9%	22.8%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	19.0%	23.8%	4.5%	0.0%	13.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	16.1%	21.4%	0.0%	—	12.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	20.7%	22.4%	3.1%	4.8%	10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	28.3%	21.6%	3.3%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	29.8%	20.8%	2.5%	0.0%	6.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	28.0%	16.6%	1.9%	—	5.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	17.3%	15.7%	1.6%	2.8%	3.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	15.6%	14.7%	1.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	14.6%	17.2%	1.5%	5.1%	4.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	12.8%	18.1%	1.5%	—	1.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	7.1%	11.7%	0.9%	2.4%	1.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.9%	9.2%	1.0%	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	73.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3660
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	43%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1840
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.1689
IFS HRES	15%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0234
WeatherNext 2	14%	69.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0185
ICON	12%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0154

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗