KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

43%

15%

14%

12%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 36.4¢Risks 36.45u

ICONNO 63.5¢Risks 63.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +63.55u · ICON −63.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:05+00:00	79.0%	83.4%	59.6%	30.2%	45.9%
2026-10-15T16:19:58+00:00	79.0%	83.4%	59.6%	30.2%	45.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:22+00:00	79.0%	83.4%	69.5%	30.2%	45.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:42+00:00	79.0%	83.4%	69.5%	30.2%	45.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	79.0%	83.4%	69.5%	30.2%	45.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	79.0%	83.4%	69.5%	30.2%	45.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:16+00:00	44.8%	83.4%	69.5%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:28+00:00	44.8%	83.4%	69.5%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	44.8%	83.4%	69.5%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	44.8%	83.4%	69.5%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	44.8%	83.4%	56.4%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	44.8%	83.4%	56.4%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	44.8%	83.4%	56.4%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:44+00:00	43.9%	83.4%	56.4%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:18+00:00	43.9%	83.4%	56.4%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:29+00:00	43.9%	83.4%	56.4%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	43.9%	83.4%	56.4%	27.4%	35.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:29+00:00	46.3%	90.5%	44.1%	31.9%	20.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	44.1%	31.9%	20.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	44.1%	31.9%	20.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:20+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	53.5%	31.9%	20.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	53.5%	31.9%	20.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	53.5%	31.9%	20.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:59+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	53.5%	31.9%	24.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:27+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	53.5%	31.9%	24.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	53.5%	31.9%	24.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	53.5%	31.9%	24.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:03+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	53.5%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:29+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	45.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:36+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	45.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	46.3%	90.6%	45.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	49.1%	90.6%	45.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:19+00:00	49.1%	90.6%	45.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	49.1%	90.6%	45.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:37+00:00	49.1%	90.6%	45.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:38+00:00	49.1%	90.6%	45.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	49.1%	90.6%	38.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:35+00:00	49.1%	90.6%	38.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:45+00:00	49.1%	90.6%	38.3%	27.3%	24.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:25+00:00	48.0%	90.6%	38.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:38+00:00	48.0%	90.6%	38.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:35+00:00	48.0%	90.6%	38.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	48.0%	90.6%	38.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	48.0%	90.6%	38.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:03+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	30.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	30.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	30.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:51+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	30.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:16+00:00	49.0%	88.2%	30.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:36+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	30.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:31+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	30.3%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:39+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	22.9%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:48+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	22.9%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	22.9%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	49.0%	88.6%	22.9%	21.8%	16.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:11+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	22.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:28+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	22.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:37+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	22.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:53+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	22.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:01+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	23.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	23.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	23.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:53+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	23.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	51.0%	88.6%	23.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	51.0%	88.6%	23.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	51.0%	88.6%	23.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:54+00:00	51.0%	88.6%	23.9%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	51.0%	88.6%	28.1%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:20+00:00	51.0%	88.6%	28.1%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:26+00:00	51.0%	88.6%	28.1%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:36+00:00	51.0%	88.6%	28.1%	22.5%	19.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:13+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	28.1%	15.4%	19.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	28.1%	15.4%	19.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:18+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	28.1%	15.4%	19.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:26+00:00	48.0%	88.6%	28.1%	15.4%	19.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:43+00:00	48.0%	81.8%	19.5%	15.4%	19.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	48.0%	81.8%	19.5%	15.4%	19.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:26+00:00	48.0%	81.8%	19.5%	15.4%	19.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	48.0%	81.8%	19.5%	15.4%	19.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:09+00:00	43.9%	81.4%	19.5%	15.3%	19.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:42+00:00	43.9%	81.4%	19.5%	15.3%	19.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00	43.9%	60.5%	19.5%	15.3%	19.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:57+00:00	43.9%	60.5%	19.5%	15.3%	19.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:06+00:00	43.9%	60.5%	15.9%	15.3%	19.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:24+00:00	43.9%	60.5%	15.9%	15.3%	19.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	43.9%	60.5%	15.9%	15.3%	19.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:57+00:00	41.0%	60.5%	15.9%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:06+00:00	41.0%	60.5%	15.9%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:16+00:00	41.0%	60.5%	15.9%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	41.0%	60.5%	15.9%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	41.0%	60.5%	15.9%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:40+00:00	41.0%	60.5%	13.6%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:51+00:00	41.0%	60.5%	13.6%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	41.0%	60.5%	13.6%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:33+00:00	42.9%	60.5%	13.6%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:45+00:00	42.9%	60.5%	13.6%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	42.9%	60.5%	13.6%	15.3%	12.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	42.9%	60.5%	13.6%	15.3%	12.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	60%	73.3°F	3.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.3660
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	0.3181
AIFS Single	43%	71.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	0.1840
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	0.1689
IFS HRES	15%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0234
WeatherNext 2	14%	69.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0185
ICON	12%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	0.0154

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗