KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

39%

27%

27%

22%

17%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 27.8¢Risks 27.80u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +72.20u · EPS −72.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	3.5%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.4%	30.0%	—	—	15.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	7.7%	5.8%	0.2%	—	10.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	12.4%	8.2%	4.1%	—	10.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	14.2%	18.9%	9.3%	—	9.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	8.7%	33.0%	1.1%	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.0%	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.8%	3.1%	3.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.3%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.2%	7.0%	0.9%	—	0.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.9%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.8%	2.5%	0.5%	—	1.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.5%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	0.6%	0.6%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	1.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	0.9%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	0.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	0.2852
National Blend	46%	79.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.2116
ICON	39%	77.5°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.1505
WeatherNext 2	27%	76.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0734
IFS HRES	27%	75.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0708
AIFS Single	22%	75.5°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0506
IFS Ensemble	17%	76.2°F	3.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0282

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗