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KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
8%
WN2
7%
AIFS
6%
EPS
2%
HRES
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 4.8¢Risks 1.19u
VS
HRESNO 95.2¢Risks 23.81u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.81u · HRES −23.81u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.6% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.6% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 06:0010-12 00:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————1.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:009.8%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:004.3%————4.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:004.2%————5.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:004.9%————7.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:001.9%————4.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:002.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0013.7%————5.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0027.4%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0037.5%————4.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0024.8%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0026.1%————4.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0018.9%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:001.7%————3.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.0%————4.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.1%————6.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:001.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:003.0%————5.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:004.4%—0.0%——4.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:004.4%—0.1%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.8%————2.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:004.5%—0.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:008.0%—0.7%——3.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:005.3%—8.6%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.9%0.0%11.4%——4.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:001.8%—1.2%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.9%1.7%1.1%0.0%—2.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:003.9%—8.9%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:003.6%2.9%1.7%0.7%—2.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.5%—11.5%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:003.3%3.3%5.0%1.8%—1.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.0%—10.5%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:001.2%1.5%10.8%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.8%0.0%6.2%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.4%0.4%—0.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.3%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.9%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.6%0.1%1.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON8%75.3°F5.9°F2026-10-14 00:000.0067
WeatherNext 27%76.7°F4.6°F2026-10-13 12:000.0048
AIFS Single6%76.0°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0042
NWS forecast5%75.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 02:000.0024
IFS Ensemble2%76.2°F3.4°F2026-10-13 00:000.0003
National Blend1%74.0°F4.3°F2026-10-14 00:000.0002
IFS HRES1%70.7°F5.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗