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KBHM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Birmingham, ALHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 10:32 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
8%
WN2
7%
AIFS
6%
EPS
2%
HRES
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 4.8¢Risks 1.19u
VS
HRESNO 95.2¢Risks 23.81u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.81u · HRES −23.81u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:14+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00AIFS Single: 4.3% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00AIFS Single: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-13T04:15:49+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00AIFS Single: 15.1% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00AIFS Single: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T04:15:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.3% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.2% · 2026-10-12T07:48:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.2% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.2% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.2% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.2% · 2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.6% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.6% · 2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.6% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T04:15:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.1% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.9% · 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T07:48:14+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00IFS HRES: 20.6% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T04:15:49+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00IFS HRES: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00IFS HRES: 10.0% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00IFS HRES: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 1.3% · 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T07:48:14+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00ICON: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00ICON: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00ICON: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00ICON: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00ICON: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00ICON: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00ICON: 22.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00ICON: 22.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-13T04:15:49+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00ICON: 22.2% · 2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00ICON: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00ICON: 19.7% · 2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:0010-12 07:4810-13 09:3410-14 10:32
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:48:14+00:004.3%6.3%8.2%20.6%6.3%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:004.3%6.3%8.2%20.6%6.3%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:004.3%6.3%8.2%20.6%6.3%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:004.3%6.3%8.2%20.6%6.3%
2026-10-12T10:50:09+00:004.3%6.3%8.2%20.6%6.3%
2026-10-12T11:35:30+00:004.3%6.3%8.5%20.6%6.3%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:004.3%5.6%8.5%20.6%6.3%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:004.3%5.6%8.5%20.6%6.3%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:007.4%5.6%8.5%20.6%6.3%
2026-10-12T14:41:17+00:007.5%5.6%8.6%20.6%6.4%
2026-10-12T15:26:59+00:007.5%5.6%8.6%20.6%6.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:007.5%5.4%8.6%20.6%6.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:007.5%5.4%8.9%20.6%6.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:007.5%5.4%8.9%20.6%6.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:007.5%5.4%8.9%20.6%6.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:007.5%5.4%8.9%20.6%6.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:005.5%5.4%8.9%10.9%22.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:005.5%5.4%8.9%10.9%22.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:005.5%5.4%8.9%10.9%22.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:005.5%5.4%8.9%10.9%22.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:005.5%5.4%7.1%10.9%22.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:005.5%5.4%7.1%10.9%22.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:005.5%5.4%7.1%10.9%22.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:005.5%5.4%7.1%10.9%22.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:0015.1%5.4%7.1%10.9%22.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:0015.1%5.4%7.1%10.9%22.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:0015.1%5.4%7.1%10.9%22.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:49+00:0015.1%5.4%7.1%10.9%22.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:0015.1%5.4%12.2%10.9%22.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:0015.1%5.4%12.2%10.9%22.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:0015.1%5.4%12.2%10.9%22.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:0015.1%5.4%12.2%10.9%22.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:21+00:0013.3%5.4%12.2%10.0%16.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:0013.3%5.4%12.2%10.0%16.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:0013.3%5.4%12.2%10.0%16.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:0013.3%5.4%12.2%10.0%16.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:0013.3%1.3%5.0%10.0%16.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:0013.3%1.3%5.0%10.0%16.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:0013.3%1.3%5.0%10.0%16.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:0013.3%1.3%5.0%10.0%16.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:0010.7%1.3%5.1%10.0%17.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:0010.7%1.7%5.1%10.0%17.1%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:0010.7%1.7%5.1%10.0%17.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:0010.7%1.7%5.1%10.0%17.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:0010.7%1.7%6.6%10.0%17.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:0010.7%1.7%6.6%10.0%17.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:0010.7%1.7%6.6%10.0%17.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:0014.1%1.7%6.6%10.0%19.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:0014.1%1.7%6.6%10.0%19.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:0014.1%1.7%6.6%10.0%19.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:0014.1%1.7%6.6%10.0%19.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:0014.1%1.7%6.6%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:0014.1%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:0014.1%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:0014.1%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:006.6%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:006.6%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:46+00:006.6%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:006.6%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:006.6%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:006.6%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:006.6%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-14T06:46:15+00:006.6%1.7%6.9%10.8%19.7%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:006.5%1.7%6.9%10.8%8.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:35+00:006.5%1.7%6.9%10.8%8.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:006.5%1.7%6.9%10.8%8.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:006.5%1.7%6.9%10.8%8.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:47+00:006.5%1.7%6.9%1.3%8.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON8%75.3°F5.9°F2026-10-14 00:000.0067
WeatherNext 27%76.7°F4.6°F2026-10-13 12:000.0048
AIFS Single6%76.0°F5.0°F2026-10-14 00:000.0042
NWS forecast5%75.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 02:000.0024
IFS Ensemble2%76.2°F3.4°F2026-10-13 00:000.0003
National Blend1%74.0°F4.3°F2026-10-14 00:000.0002
IFS HRES1%70.7°F5.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBHM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBHM-20261019-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Birmingham runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗